EIU’s $1:GHS6 Forecast’ll Fail – Oppong Nkrumah
The Government of Ghana has said it is confident the cedi will perform better in the years ahead against major trading currencies, especially the U.S. dollar.
As such, it is most unlikely that a dollar will hit GHS6 by 2022 as projected by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in the UK.
The EIU report cited prospective tighter monetary policy in the U.S. from the latter part of 2018 into next year, and the renewal of political uncertainties associated with Ghana’s 2020 elections, as the basis for the prediction.
However, Deputy Minister of Information, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah has said that government has the capacity to arrest the fall of the cedi against the dollar.
“The word says that ‘may’ and it explains what could make it happen. It talks about the fact that if there are election-related pressures and it makes other analysis. For example, currently, our balance of trade and consequently our balance of payment is improved, and, if we are not able to keep on that track… may put us in that position.
“We need to guard against the things that they cautioned about so that we don’t find ourselves in that spot,” he explained.
The lawmaker said government has proven based on recent macroeconomic figures and other indicators that such an occurrence can be prevented.
“If you look at the current numbers that are being churned out in terms of our political risk insurance quite recently, even old transactions that were yet to be consummated have had to be reviewed downwards because our political risk insurance has improved following how we conducted ourselves in the last election despite the fears by organisations like the Economic Intelligence Unit that we may go southwards,” he added in an interview with Joy FM on Wednesday, 3 January.