Fitch Predicts Ghana’s Economic Lift-Off with 5.9 Percent GDP Surge

Ghana’s economic outlook is gaining renewed optimism as Fitch Solutions projects a marginal yet significant rise in Gross Domestic Product in 2026.

According to its November 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook Report, the UK-based research firm anticipates that Ghana’s annual GDP will climb from 5.8 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent next year.

Although the growth increase appears modest, it points to strengthening fundamentals and a steady recovery path after years of economic shocks, inflationary pressures, and fiscal tightening.

One of the primary pillars behind Fitch’s projection is easing inflation. The firm explains that softer price pressures are expected to lift private consumption, which historically contributes a substantial share to Ghana’s GDP.

After experiencing intense inflationary episodes driven by global supply chain disruptions, currency depreciation, and elevated food and fuel prices, Ghana has since recorded a gradual decline in inflation. This trend has boosted purchasing power and restored consumer confidence.

Private consumption, which had been weakened by high prices throughout 2023 and early 2024, has begun to rebound. Household spending was a powerful driver of the second quarter growth rate of 6.3 percent in 2025.

The quarter saw a sharp drop in inflation that encouraged both households and businesses to spend and invest more actively. With inflation expected to remain relatively controlled heading into 2026, Fitch believes this trend will sustain its momentum.

Fitch Solutions

Despite the positive outlook, Ghana’s growth trajectory will continue to be influenced by fiscal consolidation measures.

The government has committed to tightening its fiscal policy space following years of elevated deficits and debt accumulation. Efforts to restore macroeconomic stability include rationalizing public expenditure, restructuring domestic and external debt, and improving revenue mobilization.

Fitch notes that while fiscal consolidation is necessary to strengthen long-term stability, it may limit the pace of expansion in the short term. Reduced government spending and disciplined financial operations could temper demand-side growth. However, these measures are essential to rebuild investor confidence and set the economy on a more sustainable path.

Ghana’s restructuring of its public debt has also begun bearing fruit. Agreements with bilateral creditors, including Spain, Germany and the UK, alongside a successful domestic debt exchange program, have eased pressure on government finances and improved the economic outlook.

These reforms support Fitch’s expectations of a more stable and predictable environment for investment and consumption in 2026.

Fitch also highlights two conditions that could moderate growth: slow credit pass-through and a stronger cedi. While interest rates have begun to ease gradually, the transmission of monetary policy decisions to the credit market remains sluggish.

Banks continue to adopt cautious lending practices due to elevated non-performing loans and the need to strengthen their balance sheets after the domestic debt exchange.

Additionally, the expectation of a stronger Ghanaian cedi in 2026 may affect export competitiveness. Although a firmer currency supports import affordability and price stability, it can also reduce the revenue of export-focused businesses.

Fitch believes these conditions will counterbalance some of the positive effects of rising private consumption.

The report highlights the impressive performance of Ghana’s services sector, which remains the largest contributor to GDP. In the second quarter of 2025, the sector surged by 9.9 percent year-on-year, a significant rise from just 2 percent a year earlier. Key segments such as finance, insurance, trade, and education recorded broad-based expansion.

This strong services sector performance underscores the resilience of Ghana’s economy and signals future opportunity. The role of services in driving fixed investment, employment creation, and revenue generation will remain critical in 2026. Fitch expects sustained growth in this sector to buttress the broader economic trajectory.

Overall, Ghana’s economic growth outlook for 2026 reflects a cautiously optimistic scenario. Fitch Solutions sees growth edging up to 5.9 percent, driven by a combination of easing inflation, strong household spending, and a rising services sector.

At the same time, fiscal consolidation, a stronger local currency, and slow credit transmission will temper rapid expansion.

Nevertheless, the anticipated growth rate affirms Ghana’s capacity to navigate macroeconomic challenges and build resilience. With continued reforms, supportive monetary conditions, and a robust private sector, the country is positioned for steady progress in the years ahead.