Ghana Risks Economic Fragility Without Structural Transformation

Renowned economist Professor Godfred Bokpin has raised concerns about Ghana’s economic resilience, pointing to the country’s continued dependence on raw commodity exports and the lack of structural transformation as critical risks to long-term sustainability.

Despite more than six decades of independence, Ghana continues to rely heavily on the export of unprocessed primary commodities.

According to Prof. Bokpin, over 70% of Ghana’s export earnings still come from raw materials such as gold, cocoa, and crude oil — a pattern that has remained virtually unchanged since independence in 1957.

Speaking at a forum themed “Ghana at Risk: The Economic Fallout of Distant Conflicts,” Prof. Bokpin noted, “From Independence, more than 70 percent of our export earnings are still driven by primary commodities. We are still talking about the same percentage now, and when we say we have done well, it’s more of the same. So how do you talk about resilience?”

He explained that this economic model leaves the country exposed to external shocks and vulnerable to global price fluctuations, as it does not benefit from value addition or a diversified export base.

The economist acknowledged that Ghana’s economy is currently reaping some benefits from high gold prices, which have been buoyed by geopolitical uncertainties and global economic instability.

However, he cautioned that this temporary windfall creates a false sense of security.

“The economy is only resilient because the negative events we are seeing now tend to disproportionately benefit gold. But what if the crises had come from the perspective of commodities? What would have happened to us?”.

Prof. Bokpin emphasized that Ghana’s reliance on gold as a buffer against economic shocks is unsustainable. He argued that a true resilient economy should be able to withstand a broad range of shocks, not just benefit when one commodity performs well.

Missing Shift

Prof. Bokpin was unequivocal in his assessment: Ghana has failed to undergo the necessary structural transformation to build a diversified and robust economy.

“So over the years, decades, we have not really structurally transformed this economy; we haven’t diversified the economy,” he charged.

According to him, the country’s economic policy has been largely cosmetic, often driven by short-term political gains rather than long-term national interests.

He criticized the lack of bold economic reforms and the continued prioritization of extractive industries over manufacturing and technology-led sectors that could create jobs and enhance domestic productivity.

Planning Needed

One of the central issues raised by Prof. Bokpin is the absence of a coherent, long-term national development strategy. He called for a more data-driven approach to governance and policy formulation.

“We don’t use microdata to inform national policy formulation and implementation. Our growth pattern has been quite erratic. The economy is yet to find its level in terms of steady growth that is anchored and able to withstand shocks” he indicated.

He noted that regional disparities — particularly in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and food inflation — underscore the urgent need for targeted, data-informed development planning.

Prof. Bokpin, meanwhile, advocated for region-specific development strategies that recognize the unique strengths and needs of Ghana’s diverse regions. From agriculture in the north to mining in the west and tourism in the central and coastal belts, each region has untapped potential that should be nurtured through investment and policy support.

“Agriculture, for instance, must be prioritized to address food inflation and ensure food security,” he stated, adding that reducing import dependency would not only stabilize the local economy but also improve rural livelihoods.

Prof. Bokpin called for a bipartisan national consensus on economic development, urging political leaders, civil society, and the private sector to align around a long-term vision.

“The reason our growth has been volatile is because we haven’t adopted a long-term perspective,” he said. “The short-term nature of our planning does not allow us to build the kind of economic fundamentals that will allow us to withstand shocks.”