GSE Rally Faces War-Driven Global Risks

The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) has delivered an impressive performance in 2026, standing out as one of Africa’s best performing equity markets despite rising geopolitical tensions across the globe.

While international markets have been rattled by the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, the GSE has continued to demonstrate remarkable resilience.

Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah, President of Women in Forex Ghana and a respected market analyst, has said the war could influence Ghana’s financial markets and what investors should expect in the months ahead.

Despite the recent gains, the analyst noted that the global geopolitical tensions remain a major concern and GSE could face a serious risk when the war continues.

Despite these headwinds, the GSE has shown strong resilience so far. This strength, according to Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah, likely stems from Ghana’s 2025 macroeconomic recovery efforts (inflation down, strong cedi appreciation earlier, debt default exit) carrying momentum into 2026, plus expectations that the conflict could be relatively short-lived (as signaled by some US statements).

Against this turbulent global backdrop, the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) presents a striking picture of growth. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) has delivered extraordinary gains, crossing the historic 15,000-point milestone and closing at 15,611.32 on March 13, 2026.

Year-to-date returns stand at an impressive 78%, making it one of Africa’s best-performing major markets this year. The Financial Stocks Index has surged even higher, up over 118% YTD, with market capitalisation swelling past GH¢292 billion.

“This bullish momentum appears driven primarily by domestic factors. Ghana’s post-crisis recovery, strong banking sector performance, and renewed investor confidence in local equities have outweighed early geopolitical jitters.

“Blue-chip stocks like GCB Bank and MTN Ghana have led gains, with heavy trading volumes reflecting local and institutional buying. Mining counters, particularly gold producers, have also benefited as gold prices rose amid safe-haven demand triggered by the conflict” Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah noted.

Yet the war’s transmission channels are already visible. Ms Annor-Sika Asantewah noted that heightened volatility has increased risk premiums for emerging-market assets.

“Broader African and global equity indices have faced pressure, and any sustained oil spike could squeeze corporate margins in transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors listed on the GSE.”

She believes that these domestic drivers have helped cushion the local market against global volatility for the beginning phase of the conflict as it it is happening now.

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began with coordinated strikes on February 28, has triggered widespread market uncertainty. One of the most immediate consequences has been the sharp spike in global oil prices, driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude prices briefly surged toward the $90 to $120 per barrel range during the height of market anxiety. For oil importing economies such as Ghana, this development has significant economic implications.

According to Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah, higher oil prices have the potential to create ripple effects across multiple sectors of the economy.

“Ghana operates within a deregulated fuel pricing framework, which means global oil shocks are transmitted quickly into domestic prices. When crude oil rises sharply due to geopolitical conflict, the immediate impact is higher fuel costs locally. This then filters through transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors.”

She noted that companies listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange could face rising operational expenses if energy prices remain elevated for a prolonged period.

“When fuel prices increase, companies spend more to move goods, power operations, and manage supply chains. Those additional costs can reduce profit margins for firms, especially in sectors like manufacturing and consumer goods.”