Poll puts Bawumia ahead of NDC rivals

Former vice president Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia would defeat any of the main potential candidates from the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) if Ghana’s 2028 presidential election were held today, according to a major new opinion poll.

The nationwide survey, conducted by research organisation Africa Policy Lens, found Dr Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP)  flag-bearer for the 2028 elections,  ahead of every NDC contender tested in hypothetical one-on-one contests.

His support ranged from 45.7% to 49.9% of the national vote, depending on which NDC candidate he was paired against.

The strongest results for the vice president came against Hon Eric Opoku and Prof Joshua Alabi, where he polled nearly 50%.

The poll also found that Dr Bawumia’s support was not limited to a few traditional strongholds. He was projected to win the majority of Ghana’s sixteen regions in every matchup tested, suggesting his appeal extends across much of the country.

Voters prioritise honesty and jobs

The survey of 16,963 respondents, conducted from 27 July to 7 August 2026, also asked Ghanaians what qualities they most wanted in their next president.

Honesty and integrity emerged as the single most important leadership quality. The ability to create jobs and competence in managing the economy were also ranked highly.

“The findings indicate that honesty and integrity remain the most important leadership quality sought by Ghanaian voters, followed by the ability to create jobs and competence in managing the economy,” the report stated.

It added: “These results suggest that both character and economic leadership will continue to shape voter decision-making in 2028.”

Significant undecided vote

However, the report cautioned that the findings should be seen as a snapshot of public opinion rather than as a prediction of the 2028 outcome.

In several matchups, between 7% and 9% of respondents remained undecided – a proportion large enough to potentially influence the final result.

In the contest against Mr Johnson Asiedu Nketiah, the report noted that “the proportion of undecided voters is sufficiently large to influence the eventual outcome”.

It added: “While Dr Bawumia currently enjoys a marginal lead, the race remains highly competitive, with the preferences of undecided voters likely to play a decisive role.”

Similarly, in the matchup against Hon Haruna Iddrisu, the report said: “The 8.1% undecided voters could significantly influence the final outcome. Overall, the results point to a highly competitive contest with no clear runaway favourite.”

What the findings may indicate

The report’s authors suggested the results could reflect public assessments of the current administration’s performance.

“It is plausible that the observed voter preferences reflect public assessments of the performance of the incumbent administration during its first two years in office,” the report stated.

“If this interpretation is correct, the findings may indicate that many voters remain unconvinced that the expectations and promises associated with the change of government have yet been fully realised.”

However, the researchers acknowledged that “this survey did not directly measure satisfaction with government performance or the fulfilment of campaign commitments”.

“Future surveys that explicitly examine public evaluations of government performance, policy delivery and issue priorities would be valuable in determining the extent to which these factors are shaping the electoral advantage observed in this study,” the report added.

Credible alternative

Despite the caveats, the report concluded that the consistency of Dr Bawumia’s advantage was noteworthy.

“The consistency of the findings is noteworthy,” the report stated. “Dr Mahamudu Bawumia leads every major potential NDC presidential contender tested in the survey and records majority regional victories in each hypothetical contest.”

“The fact that this advantage is observed across all candidate pairings rather than in a single matchup suggests that his current electoral position reflects a broader pattern of voter preference rather than an isolated statistical outcome.”

The report concluded: “These results may be interpreted as an early indication that a substantial segment of the Ghanaian electorate currently views Dr Bawumia as a credible alternative for national leadership.”

Survey methodology

The poll was carried out by Africa Policy Lens, an independent Ghana-based think tank, using face-to-face interviews with voters across all 276 constituencies.

The survey was designed to be nationally representative, providing a 99% confidence level with a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.

The report emphasised: “Public opinion surveys provide a snapshot of voter preferences at a particular point in time and cannot predict the outcome of an election that remains several years away.”

“Electoral preferences may evolve as political, economic and social circumstances change, and future campaign dynamics will undoubtedly influence voter behaviour.”

It concluded: “While it would be premature to conclude that the outcome of the 2028 presidential election has been determined, the findings nevertheless send a clear signal about the prevailing direction of public opinion at the time of the survey.”