Economy Growing Stronger, IMF Lifts 2026 Growth to 5.7%, Cuts Inflation to 4.8%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Ghana’s economy, saying the country will grow by 5.7 per cent in 2026. It also expects inflation to fall to 4.8 per cent by the end of the year.

The new figures were published in the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook. They are better than the IMF’s April forecast, which put growth at 4.6 per cent and inflation at 7.9 per cent. The new growth figure is also higher than the government’s own target of 4.8 per cent.

The IMF said the better outlook is due to the government’s continued efforts to manage its finances well, strong earnings from gold exports, and Ghana’s commitment to the reform targets under its programme with the Fund.

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service show the economy grew by 6.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

However, the IMF warned that risks remain. It mentioned conflicts between countries, trade tensions, and unstable commodity prices as possible threats. It said Ghana’s reliance on commodity exports makes the economy easy to shake when outside events change, and it called for the country to sell more different kinds of goods to other countries.

For the John Mahama government, the new numbers support its claim that it is managing the economy well. Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has often argued the government inherited a weak economy and has since brought back stability.

In May this year, the Finance Minister told Parliament that Ghana had “moved away from the intensive-care unit to the wellness centre” as the country moved from the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility to a non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument.

But whether the IMF forecast helps the government politically will depend on whether Ghanaians feel the improvement in their daily lives.

The Cedi has lost more than 11 per cent of its value against the Dollar since the start of 2026, which has reduced some of the benefits of lower inflation. Electricity and water tariffs have not gone up in the fourth quarter, but the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission said the Cedi fell by 3.04 per cent during its latest review.

If the IMF’s inflation forecast of 4.8 per cent comes true, it will be the second year in a row that Ghana ends the year with single-digit inflation. But the IMF itself said the wider benefits will depend on whether stable prices lead to lasting gains in what people can really afford.

The forecasts were released during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. The IMF expects Ghana’s growth to slow to 5.2 per cent in 2027.