Agyarko Wins, No Run-Off – Leads 13 of 16 Regions in NPP Chair Race

Former Energy Minister Boakye Kyeremateng Agyarko holds a commanding lead and headed for an outright first-ballot victory in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) National Chairmanship race; a September 2026 survey by the Ghana Watch Initiative International (GWI) has found.

The GWI Survey, which polled 2,098 constituency responses across all 16 regions, projects Agyarko at 51.81% of the national vote, translating to approximately 3,710 votes in the official electoral college of 7,160. That figure exceeds the 3,581 threshold required to win the chairmanship on the first ballot.

Geographically, Agyarko leads in 13 of 16 regions, including the party’s traditional strongholds. He holds 58.5% in Ashanti and 55.8% in Eastern Region, while also leading in competitive swing regions such as Greater Accra (53.7%) and Bono East (52.4%).

Boadu’s support is concentrated in Bono (44.0%), Central (43.4%), and Savannah (45.3%)—regions where his organizational tenure as former General Secretary retains residual networks.

The survey describes Boadu’s regional advantage as “electorally inefficient,” noting that his strong margins are in low-delegate regions, whereas Agyarko’s moderate but consistent leads are in high-delegate constituencies like Ashanti (47 constituencies) and Eastern (33).

Born in 1956 in Kumasi, the former Bank of New York vice president has defied the age question that has quietly trailed his candidacy, instead turning his decades of experience into a campaign asset.

The survey notes that his perceived integrity rating stands at 4.2 out of 5, the highest among all four candidates, and his unity score of 4.2 is well ahead of his closest rival, John Boadu, who scored 3.4.

The data suggests that delegates are not just choosing a chairman but they as well have a desire for a healing architecture after the party’s 2024 electoral loss. Agyarko’s campaign has leaned heavily into that narrative, positioning him as a unifying figure with cross-factional appeal.

According to the survey, 64% of the reformist bloc associated with former Chairman Paul Afoko would re-engage if reconciliation messaging is made explicit.

Despite the commanding numbers, the survey’s recommendations caution Agyarko’s campaign against triumphalism. “Move from popularity to organization,” it advises, urging the deployment of constituency coordinators in Bono, Central, and Savannah to cut Boadu’s margins from 44–45% to below 38%. It also warns that “disciplined unity messaging” must be maintained to avoid triggering an anti-bandwagon effect.

For Boadu, the survey suggests a strategic pivot from “continuity” to “organizational reformer with experience,” acknowledging the need for a new approach while leveraging his field operation strength. It notes that he must win Greater Accra or Eastern to remain viable.

Paul Afoko, polling at 12.39%, is described as a potential “kingmaker” in a tight run-off scenario, while Sammy Crabbe trails at 3.48%, with his candidacy seen as non-viable as a standalone but potentially significant if he endorses another candidate.

As of September 2026, the survey concludes that the NPP National Chairmanship race is “Agyarko’s to lose.” With a statistical majority, a geographic mandate, and the highest unity perception among the candidates, the 70-year-old former minister appears poised to lead the party into the 2028 general elections—provided his campaign converts popularity into structure and avoids the complacency that has derailed many a frontrunner before him.